For the climate world, 2025 will be the year of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The level of ambition countries convey in these climate action plans will not only set the mood at COP30 in Belém – it will influence the climate agenda for a decade to come.
NDCs are intended to help course correct the global community in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our flagship initiative, the Climate Action Tracker, which assesses government targets, policy and action, finds that existing NDC ambition would lead to a 2.6°C warmer world, which is far off where we need to be.
To address this, countries have been asked to set 2035 climate targets that are economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases, and are in line with 1.5°C. But ambitious 2035 targets won’t be enough unless the existing 2030 targets are also increased in line with the Paris Agreement. There’s simply no wiggle room to delay.
Pushing for higher ambition
To help generate momentum behind stronger target setting, Climate Analytics produced a brief on what 1.5-aligned collective ambition looks like for the G7, as well as authoring a chapter with emissions benchmarks for the G20 in the Emissions Gap Report 2024.
At the national level, our 1.5°C national pathway explorer scales 1.5°C pathways assessed by the IPCC down to the national level for 60+ countries, with the goal of helping governments understand what 1.5°C ambition could feasibly look like for them.
In this NDC year, we’re working to add 1.5°C pathways for land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) to the tool to make our data easier to compare with economy-wide NDC targets. During COP29, we published NDC factsheets on the first countries to feature the new pathways, highlighting emissions benchmarks for 2030 and 2035. We believe it’s important for the tool to show separate 1.5°C pathways both including and excluding LULUCF to illustrate the reductions needed irrespective of land sinks. As our recent report on northern forests shows, governments may be overestimating the role their land plays in limiting warming to 1.5°C, which risks curbing the most important action – stopping burning fossil fuels.
NDCs and the energy transition
As this is the first update of NDCs since the Global Stocktake, NDCs need to reflect its outcome, including setting out how we can transition away from fossil fuels. To inform sector-specific target setting in line with the Stocktake’s goal of tripling renewables by 2030, last year we launched 1.5-aligned wind and solar benchmarks for 11 countries. Renewables are proven to scale fast and offer our best hope at bringing emissions down rapidly. Wind and solar (now cheaper than fossil fuels in most places) will represent the bread and butter of the renewables revolution. So this year, we plan to launch wind and solar benchmarks for even more countries to feed into NDC and national target setting processes.
At the global level, our major report the State of Climate Action will assess climate progress for various sectors against the 1.5°C limit in the run up to the climate talks in Brazil. The report defines 1.5-aligned sectoral targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and gauges how fast current progress would need to accelerate to meet these targets.
Supporting action on the ground
Much of our NDC work centres on driving 1.5°C ambition among high emitters. We do this on behalf of our key constituents – climate vulnerable countries – who can’t afford to let the world forget just how much this matters. Yet at the national level, we also work with vulnerable countries accompanying them in developing NDCs, not because of their great emissions saving potentials, but because they shouldn’t be left behind in the energy transition.
Our technical support teams embedded in regions via our network of offices, covering key vulnerable regions like the Caribbean, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, have recently supported Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Benin and Nepal in developing their updated NDCs.
These experts also work in partnership with our science team to support countries in implementing their NDCs, providing bespoke climate risk assessments and other scientific evidence to develop NAPs and LT-LEDS and apply for climate finance from the GCF and other sources.
The road ahead
As we enter the second half of the critical decade for climate action, Climate Analytics will focus on key influences to monitor in the near-term, such as our new project tracking methane, a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas. And the Climate Action Tracker will focus on each new NDC as it comes out, providing rolling analysis throughout the year on the level of ambition we’re seeing, whether it’s sufficient, and what it could all mean for global temperatures.
Following the hottest year on record – and for over 100,000 years – 2025 will have to deliver on both on NDC ambition and NDC implementation (which is currently lagging behind), or our best chance of achieving our climate goals may pass us by. Our science and policy analysis and country support aims to empower climate actors around the world to make the most of the opportunities 2025 brings.
Paul is Head of Communications and Strategic Partnerships at Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit.